San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2022

San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends January 2022

  • Gary Snow
  • 01/26/22

San Francisco Real Estate - January 2022 Report

Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring Q2. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

California Association of Realtors® - 2021 CA Housing Market Survey - Highlights

  • 61% of CA homes sold above the asking price, the highest % in at least 30 years. Both the share of sales with multiple offers and the average number of offers received reached their highest levels since 2013. 2021 saw the shortest time-on-market to offer acceptance in 35 years. 60% of accepted offers were non-contingent (not subject to appraisal, financing, inspections, etc.). 20% of buyers paid all cash.
  • Most CA Realtors® noticed at least one of the following changes in buyer preferences since the pandemic: Opting for a bigger home (22%); less concerned about commute (22%); buying a house instead of a condo/townhome (21%); opting for suburban instead of city location (19%); choosing rural instead of urban or suburban location (13%).
  • 29% of CA sellers planned to buy again in the same county (the lowest % in at least 16 years); 35% planned to buy in another state (the highest % in at least 16 years).
  • The primary reason to move out of home county: Housing affordability (26%), quality of life (15%), closer to family (12%), 2nd home (12%), commute (6%), retirement (6%), ability to work from home (5%).
  • A single most important reason to buy: 1st-time buyers - tired of renting (56%); repeat buyers - larger home (23%), better location (20%), investment or taxes (13%).
  • Vacation/2nd home sales reached the highest level in 9 years: 7% of sales. Homes purchased for investment/rental: 9.5%. Sales to international buyers hit the highest % since 2014: 5% of sales.
  • Housing affordability – the % of CA households able to afford median-priced houses hit its lowest percentage since 2008 (despite historically low-interest rates): 23% - 24% in Q2 and Q3 2021.

Survey was sent to a random sample of 39,567 CA Realtors®, geographically distributed across the state. 1,908 valid Compass survey responses = a response rate of 4.8%. The margin of error for the survey was +/- 2.2% at a 95% confidence level.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds, or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data.

Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings," "days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets, and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.

City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers are to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How many of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is the price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, "unusual events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics, basements, rooms built without a permit, patios, decks, or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws statutes regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Compass.

 

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